Prototype · internal
Research meeting brief · 12 August 2026

Four directions from the New Intolerance Study

New stories the survey can support—ranked by originality, public value and the extra analysis needed to make each claim hold.

Survey One n=5,023 · 16 Feb–8 Mar 2026Survey Two n=1,006 · 4–15 Jun 2026Working analysis—not for citation
Editorial judgement

Lead with the Discussion Gradient. It has the strongest positive thesis and a promising new respondent-level association. The political-orientation analysis is the clearest new territory found in the materials reviewed, subject to confirming the placement student’s brief. The education proposal is the strongest cross-program hand-off. Social Temperature is publicly compelling, but needs a new information-ecology test to move beyond existing papers.

01
Lead contender · new analysis

Practising Pluralism
The Discussion Gradient

Respondents who often or very often discuss matters with people holding different views report more positive sentiment toward each of the five groups shown than rare or never discussants, after standardising both groups to Survey One’s generation distribution.

23%often talk with people who hold different views
+19–22percentage-point warmth gap across five minority groups
−7.6points choosing stronger laws among frequent discussants

The five-group discussion gradient

Positive sentiment, frequent discussants versus rare/never discussants; generation-standardised percentage.

Rare / neverOften
Jewish Australians
4363
Muslims
2746
Refugees / asylum seekers
3052
Middle Eastern immigrants
2849
African immigrants
3050

Association, not causation. Generation-standardised preliminary analysis; the publication model should also adjust for education, politics and other plausible confounders.

The story to test

Pluralism may be associated with a civic practice, not simply a professed value. Move from the scarcity of cross-difference discussion to its broad attitudinal pattern, then test whether the relationship survives fuller adjustment.

Preferred responseRare / neverOftenGap
Community dialogue26.1%32.3%+6.2
Community representation16.3%22.2%+5.9
Promote shared values27.2%34.0%+6.9
Stronger laws50.5%42.9%−7.6

Survey One. Frequent discussion n=1,165; rare/never n=1,848; “sometimes” n=2,010 is excluded from the contrast. “Positive sentiment” combines the three positive response categories. Remedy items are multi-response.

02
Public-facing · needs one new test

Who Shapes the
Social Temperature?

Across separate survey measures, online channels lead reported encounter locations while social and traditional media sit at the bottom of the institutional trust battery; private networks lead reported influence and discussion comfort.

55%of witnesses encountered antisemitism online
10%place complete/a lot of trust in social media
48%would be very/extremely comfortable sharing honest views with family and friends

Where witnesses encountered it

Share of people who reported witnessing antisemitism, n=1,387; multiple response.

Online / social media
55%
Traditional media
34%
Public spaces
34%
Protests
32%
Family / social circle
21%

These are recalled encounter locations among witnesses—not verified incident prevalence.

Media sit at the bottom of the trust battery

Complete/a lot of trust, Survey One. This is a separate population measure, not a correlation with individual exposure.

Social media
10%
Traditional media
16%
Federal government
26%
Schools / universities
41%

The extra test that makes this new

Among witnesses (n=1,387), model whether the reported encounter channel predicts perceived seriousness, expressive inhibition or preferred remedies after controlling for age and politics. Without that step, much of the descriptive story overlaps existing papers.

Survey One encounter and trust measures; Survey Two discussion-comfort measure. Do not treat items from different surveys as respondent-level relationships.

03
Cross-program concept

Trusted but Tongue-Tied

Respondents assign schools and universities a substantial civic role, yet only one in four say they would be very or extremely comfortable sharing their honest views on Israel–Palestine in an educational institution.

49%select better education as an effective remedy
41%place complete/a lot of trust in schools and universities
38%would not be at all comfortable sharing honest views on Israel–Palestine there

The expectation–comfort contrast

Percentage selecting or reporting each indicated response. Measures come from two independent surveys.

Education as remedy
49%
Trust schools / universities
41%
Assign them responsibility
38%
Very / extremely comfortable
26%
Not at all comfortable
38%

The research question

What institutional conditions help education build pluralism when 38% of adults report no comfort sharing their honest views on this conflict in an educational institution?

Evidence strandMeasure
Institutional trust41.0%
Perceived influence26.1%
Assigned responsibility37.9%
Witnessed in education*19.1%

*Among witnesses, n=1,387.

This is an adult public-opinion sample, not a student or teacher sample. It measures expectations and perceptions—not classroom or campus conditions.

04
High potential · sensitive framing

Two Moral Maps
of Tolerance

Among respondents choosing the literal labels Left, Centre or Right, the three groups report different sentiment profiles, threat perceptions and preferred remedies.

+36left–right gap in positive feeling toward refugees
+9right–left gap in positive feeling toward Jewish Australians
+29right–left gap saying Australians feel less free

Different response profiles

Generation-standardised preliminary percentages among literal Left, Centre and Right self-labels.

MeasureLeftCentreRightLargest gap
Positive: Jewish Australians55.6%54.8%64.4%Right +8.8
Positive: Muslims53.3%37.8%27.0%Left +26.2
Positive: refugees68.4%40.4%32.0%Left +36.4
Antisemitism is serious46.4%50.2%61.8%Right +15.4
Australians feel less free40.6%51.8%70.1%Right +29.4
Select better education57.6%47.3%36.4%Left +21.1
Select stronger laws40.5%48.8%46.7%Centre +8.3

Frame as partial profiles, not moral scorekeeping

The preliminary pattern suggests different solidarities, diagnoses and preferred tools among these three self-labelled groups. Avoid “both sides” equivalence or a tolerance league table. Add all political categories, multivariate adjustment beyond generation and uncertainty estimates before publication.

Survey One only. Uses literal self-labels Left n=468, Centre n=1,093 and Right n=512, 41.3% of the full sample; centre-left, centre-right, disengaged, other and prefer-not responses are excluded. “Positive” combines three positive categories; “serious” and “less free” combine the top two agreement categories. Political orientation is broad self-placement, not a complete ideology. Descriptive association; no causal claim or confidence intervals shown.

What the meeting can decide

Choose one lead paper, one cross-program hand-off and one analysis task. Recommended: commission the fuller Discussion Gradient model; invite the education team to scope Trusted but Tongue-Tied; preserve Two Moral Maps as the second major paper; require the information-ecology test before advancing Social Temperature.

Percentages are rounded once from unrounded estimates. No respondent weights were supplied, so calculations are unweighted. Preliminary comparisons use direct standardisation to the full Survey One generation distribution and require final multivariate modelling, representativeness checks, uncertainty estimates and disclosure review before circulation.

A · Editorial dossier